This was a big week for economic numbers. Those of you who have attended the Straight Talk seminar series know that most of the economic numbers come from either the government or trade associations and that both sources have conflicts of interest when it comes to presenting unbiased data.

Unfortunately, the numbers released this week were no exception.

Let’s start with the headline Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, number that was released on Thursday morning and came in at a disappointing 1.6%.

Since I was away all last week watching groups of people interact with each other in the great outdoors, and not home watching the market’s daily gyrations, this week’s summary will focus on a macro issue that’s been stewing in my brain for a while.

Please understand that today’s missive will be more speculative and scenario based than usual. It is styled in the manner of a short strategic think-tank document. All links to the base data have been provided. As always, do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Counter arguments are always appreciated.

Quick! Name something that the majority of economists have not gotten right in over 50 years. Some of you are thinking smart-alec comments like “owning a tie without gravy stains” or “having a firm handshake” but the answer pertains to the most important function of their jobs.

Give up? It turns out that forecasting a recession, arguably the single most important bit of prognostication they perform, has completely eluded the economic profession for over 50 years.

We begin today with the title, which is a quote from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, delivered this week in a speech before the Economics Club of Washington. For those of you who attended my economic lectures back in early 2005 will note that the phrases and conclusions offered by Bernanke are nearly identical to what we discussed a year and a half ago.

The DC political process works like this. If the Federal Reserve has some tough issue to bring into the political consciousness they usually start by delivering the message at a side venue. Perhaps at their yearly keynote event in Jackson Hole (always a favorite), or at a foreign-held economics forum, or possibly at a local establishment ‘off the hill’ like they did this time.